Quick answer: Pull your sales data from the same period last year, apply a growth multiplier based on your current trajectory, add a safety stock buffer, and communicate your projections to your Fulfyld account manager.
Building Your Peak Season Inventory Forecast: What to Do Step by Step
Step 1: Pull Last Year’s Peak Season Data
Start with what actually happened. Pull your order history from the Fulfyld client portal or your eCommerce platform and look at the equivalent peak window from the previous year.
Focus on total orders by week, units sold per SKU, which SKUs ran out of stock and when, and which SKUs moved more slowly than expected and left you overstocked.
Step 2: Apply a Growth Multiplier
Last year’s numbers are the floor, not the ceiling. Adjust upward based on your current year-over-year growth rate.
Step 3: Identify Your Top SKUs and Prioritize Them
Not all SKUs need the same buffer. Identify your top 20% by order volume; these typically drive the majority of peak season revenue. Build your forecast and safety stock calculations around these first, then work down the catalog.
Step 4: Calculate Your Safety Stock
Safety stock is the buffer inventory you hold above projected demand to account for forecasting errors, supplier delays, and unexpected spikes. A standard formula:
Safety stock = (maximum daily orders × maximum lead time) − (average daily orders × average lead time)
What to Do If Your Forecast Is Off
If you realize mid-peak that a SKU is running lower than expected, contact your account manager immediately. They can assess how many days of stock remain at the current velocity and discuss whether an emergency replenishment is feasible.
If a SKU stocks out, Fulfyld’s system supports SKU substitution; you can apply alternative SKUs to orders so fulfillment doesn’t halt completely while you wait for replenishment.
Still Have Questions?
Reach out to your Fulfyld account manager as early as possible to review your forecast and align on logistics. You can also contact Fulfyld directly at hey@fulfyld.com or (256) 716-8241.
Frequently Asked Questions
How far in advance should I share my peak season forecast with Fulfyld?
At a minimum, 6–8 weeks before your peak window begins.
What if I don’t have last year’s data to base my forecast on?
Use whatever data you have. If you’re in your first year, look at your month-over-month growth trend and project forward. For most eCommerce brands, Q4 order volume runs 2–4x the monthly average
How does Fulfyld handle receiving during high-volume pre-peak periods?
Fulfyld’s standard receiving time is 48 hours under normal conditions. During pre-peak inbound surges, lead times can extend. Submitting your replenishments in Shipedge before inventory arrives and notifying your account manager of expected delivery dates helps Fulfyld prioritize your shipments and avoid delays going into peak.
Can I send extra inventory to Fulfyld as a buffer even if I’m not sure I’ll sell it all?
Yes, but factor storage costs into your planning. Fulfyld charges monthly storage fees per bin or pallet, so holding excess inventory has a real cost.
What happens if a SKU runs out during peak season?
Contact your account manager immediately so they can monitor the remaining stock. Fulfyld’s system supports SKU substitution, which allows you to route orders to an alternative SKU if one is available.